Will Toor or Arhar or Pigeonpea prices go up or Down in 2019 ?

Pigeonpea or Toor is an important pulses crop of India. India produce 65% of world Toor production. in India 80% Too production comes from six states; Maharshtra, Madhya Pradesh, Karnatka, Utter Pradesh, and Jharkhand. New crop of Toor has started to arrive in local markets. Fresh arrival has started in local grain markets Madhya Pradesh and Maharshtra. Prices of toor or pigeonpea have fallen in march month. 

This year there was cultivation of toor or pigeonpea on 45.82 Hactare land in Kharif-2018 crop that was almost equal to previous year ? Crop was damaged due to poor and uneven rainfall. As per the market man there will be just 50-55% productivity of toor or pigeon pea. IF we calculate in context to previous year then We that this year there will be only 20-22 Lac metric ton of toor or pigeonpea production. 

There was 5.75 lac Metric ton old stock with NAFED. In year 2018 NAFED procured 1.87 lac metric ton new stock. There is 7.62 lac Metric ton stock with NAFED. There is domestic consumption of 32-34 lac metric ton toor or pigeon pea annually. As per import of toor or pigeon pea in concerned there is maximum 3 lac metric ton import of toor or pigeon pea only. On an average there is 3 lac metric ton stock laying with traders and processors or factories. 

If we add all the availability then total availability of toor or pigeon pea for this year is 31-34 lac metric tons. There no major difference between availability and consumption of toor or pigeon pea. If we remove 5.75 lac metric ton old stock of NAFED then total availability will be dropped to 25-28 lac metric ton then balance of availability and consumption will mismatch. In that case market price of toor will depend on selling and buying of toor or pigeon stock by NAFED. 

Traders and stockist will avoide from buying toot from farmers in March month due to year end closing. New policy on pulses is not clear due to Lokh sabha election and formation of new Govt. Traders will avoid keep away from heavy buying or stocking. There is also shortage of cash in market in these case toor prices will move between the range of 4500-5000 in March, April and May month. Meanwhile if NAFED change its policy for buying or selling of Toor or pigeonpea then price movement may change.